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EVs Unplugged: New Report Shows Slowing Sales, Forecasts Growth

Expect 2025 to be a 'reset year' in the U.S. EV market, cautions the 2025 J.D. Power E-Vision Intelligence Report.
2020 Chevrolet Bolt EV(Photo/Chevrolet)
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Electric vehicle (EV) sales are likely to stagnate at the same level as 2024, when all-electric models hit a record 9.1% of the U.S. market, according to a recent report by J.D. Power.

While the lack of a robust public charging network is part of the problem, the latest J.D. Power E-Vision Intelligence Report also sees the new Trump administration raising a series of roadblocks. But, looking further ahead, the report forecasts EVs will still capture more than a quarter of the U.S. new vehicle market by the end of the decade.

2025 J.D. Power E-Vision Intelligence Report

From 2019 to 2023, sales of battery-electric vehicles grew at an explosive 800% pace, ultimately accounting for nearly one in 12 vehicles sold in the U.S. The growth rate slowed last year, albeit to a still rapid 9%.

But, look for sales to stagnate in 2025, cautions the latest E-Vision report by J.D. Power. It points to a variety of headwinds, including high costs, the lack of a robust nationwide charging network, and the likely impact of the second Trump administration. 

Since Trump’s inauguration last month, the president has made it clear he’ll put new hurdles in the way of EV sales. Among other things, the administration has halted a program meant to fund the expansion of a charging network. And, Congress appears more than willing to go along, even proposing a new bill in the Senate to add a $1,000 EV tax — versus the current incentives.

A Reset Year

While they have a long way to go to meet the expectations of environmental advocates, battery-electric vehicles have come a long way over the last half-decade. As recently as 2019, they accounted for little more than 1% of the U.S. market. By 2023, however, that had grown to more than 8%, or about 1.1 million vehicles.

Demand expectedly started to slow last year. Power and other analysts suggest that this reflected a change in the nature of EV buyers, from dedicated green-minded motorists and tech-forward buyers to more mainstream customers less willing to tolerate the disadvantages associated with electric propulsion.

The market still grew nearly 10%, however, reaching a new record high of 1.2 million.

“2025 will be a reset year for EV adoption, in which total retail share will hold at 9.1% as manufacturers and consumers adjust to new market dynamics,” Power said in a summary of its new research. But, it also showed some optimism about the future, adding, “Longer term, the forecast calls for the EV market to reach 26% retail share by 2030.”

Trump Could Turn Out the Lights

During his first term in office and much of the 4 years afterward, Donald Trump was openly hostile to battery-electric vehicles, as he was to other green technologies like wind turbines — which he suggested several times caused cancer.

Trump softened his opposition in the months leading up to the 2024 election “because I have to,” he told rally-goers at a Georgia campaign stop, following Elon Musk’s move to support his reelection bid. Ultimately, the Tesla CEO kicked in close to $300 million for Trump and his allies.

Now that he’s back in office, however, Trump has again amped up his push to unplug EVs. Or, at the least, to disconnect Biden-era programs meant to set high sales targets and back them up with billions of federal dollars.

Trump and the Republican-led Congress are expected to end tax credits of up to $7,500 for those purchasing qualified battery-electric vehicles. And, earlier this month, Trump’s Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) ordered states to halt the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure, or NEVI, program allocating $5 billion for a nationwide public charging network buildout.

Trump also wants to strip California of its ability to set emissions standards higher than federal mandates — effectively forcing rapid EV adoption. The higher targets have already been adopted by more than a dozen other states.

High Costs of Electric Vehicles

There are other factors limiting the growth of EVs, starting with their costs. The average transaction price, or ATP, of a typical battery-electric vehicle jumped to $55,544 last month, reported Kelley Blue Book. That’s roughly $6,000 more than the typical gas model — though EVs tended to be in higher price segments and come with more equipment.

2024 Chevy Blazer EV RS RWD
2024 Chevy Blazer EV RS RWD; (photo/Paul Eisenstein)

The EV figure doesn’t include federal and state incentives, however, and those tax credits often wind up making models like the Chevrolet Blazer EV closer to par with gas-powered alternatives. Losing those incentives would, for most EV customers, translate into an instant — and substantial — price increase.

Congress Weighs In

As if that weren’t enough, Congress could make EVs even more expensive. A group of Senate Republicans proposed a $1,000 surcharge to make up for lost federal gas excise taxes.

“EVs can weigh up to three times as much as gas-powered cars, creating more wear and tear on our roads and bridges. It’s only fair that they pay into the Highway Trust Fund just like other cars do,” Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer, the lead sponsor of the bill, said.

It is true that the typical gas-powered vehicle generates up to $100 in federal fuel excise taxes. And, a number of states already have added taxes or registration fees for anywhere from $50 a year in Hawaii to $213.70 in Alabama to compensate for local highway revenue losses.

U.S. EV Market Regaining Momentum

There seems little doubt that EVs will lose momentum this year. But, the 2025 J.D. Power E-Vision Intelligence Report has a more optimistic forecast for the future.

It still sees near-term growth in some states, including Colorado, Florida, Michigan, New York, and Texas, as well as in the country’s biggest EV market, California. Sales there actually fell 0.3% last year, but “[a]ll of the decrease in the state market last year was attributable to Tesla, which had an 11.6 percent decline,” the California New Car Dealers Association said in a statement. “Registrations for all other brands increased 1.4 percent.”

Tesla, according to several recent reports, could be the brand facing the biggest struggle due to pushback against CEO Elon Musk’s high-profile role in the Trump administration. It’s yet to be clear whether the new president’s anti-EV push will be implemented fully. There’s already a legal challenge to the NEVI charger program cuts, as well as efforts to strip California’s authority to set its own emissions standards, for example.

The Power forecast, meanwhile, sees many of the challenges facing EVs being addressed, with or without federal assistance. That includes growth in public charging, as well as the launch of more new low-cost battery-electric products, such as the next-generation Chevrolet Bolt expected to come in under $30,000. Musk also has indicated Tesla’s on-again/off-again low-cost EV program may finally yield results.

“The forecast,” concluded Power, “calls for the EV market to reach 26% retail share by 2030, which is approximately half of the market share the Biden administration targeted in its climate agenda.”

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