Electric vehicle (EV) sales are likely to stagnate at the same level as 2024, when all-electric models hit a record 9.1% of the U.S. market, according to a recent report by J.D. Power.
While the lack of a robust public charging network is part of the problem, the latest J.D. Power E-Vision Intelligence Report also sees the new Trump administration raising a series of roadblocks. But, looking further ahead, the report forecasts EVs will still capture more than a quarter of the U.S. new vehicle market by the end of the decade.
2025 J.D. Power E-Vision Intelligence Report
From 2019 to 2023, sales of battery-electric vehicles grew at an explosive 800% pace, ultimately accounting for nearly one in 12 vehicles sold in the U.S. The growth rate slowed last year, albeit to a still rapid 9%.
But, look for sales to stagnate in 2025, cautions the latest E-Vision report by J.D. Power. It points to a variety of headwinds, including high costs, the lack of a robust nationwide charging network, and the likely impact of the second Trump administration.
Since Trump’s inauguration last month, the president has made it clear he’ll put new hurdles in the way of EV sales. Among other things, the administration has halted a program meant to fund the expansion of a charging network. And, Congress appears more than willing to go along, even proposing a new bill in the Senate to add a $1,000 EV tax — versus the current incentives.
A Reset Year
While they have a long way to go to meet the expectations of environmental advocates, battery-electric vehicles have come a long way over the last half-decade. As recently as 2019, they accounted for little more than 1% of the U.S. market. By 2023, however, that had grown to more than 8%, or about 1.1 million vehicles.
Demand expectedly started to slow last year. Power and other analysts suggest that this reflected a change in the nature of EV buyers, from dedicated green-minded motorists and tech-forward buyers to more mainstream customers less willing to tolerate the disadvantages associated with electric propulsion.
The market still grew nearly 10%, however, reaching a new record high of 1.2 million.
“2025 will be a reset year for EV adoption, in which total retail share will hold at 9.1% as manufacturers and consumers adjust to new market dynamics,” Power said in a summary of its new research. But, it also showed some optimism about the future, adding, “Longer term, the forecast calls for the EV market to reach 26% retail share by 2030.”
Trump Could Turn Out the Lights
During his first term in office and much of the 4 years afterward, Donald Trump was openly hostile to battery-electric vehicles, as he was to other green technologies like wind turbines — which he suggested several times caused cancer.
Trump softened his opposition in the months leading up to the 2024 election “because I have to,” he told rally-goers at a Georgia campaign stop, following Elon Musk’s move to support his reelection bid. Ultimately, the Tesla CEO kicked in close to $300 million for Trump and his allies.
Now that he’s back in office, however, Trump has again amped up his push to unplug EVs. Or, at the least, to disconnect Biden-era programs meant to set high sales targets and back them up with billions of federal dollars.
Trump and the Republican-led Congress are expected to end tax credits of up to $7,500 for those purchasing qualified battery-electric vehicles. And, earlier this month, Trump’s Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) ordered states to halt the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure, or NEVI, program allocating $5 billion for a nationwide public charging network buildout.
Trump also wants to strip California of its ability to set emissions standards higher than federal mandates — effectively forcing rapid EV adoption. The higher targets have already been adopted by more than a dozen other states.
High Costs of Electric Vehicles
There are other factors limiting the growth of EVs, starting with their costs. The average transaction price, or ATP, of a typical battery-electric vehicle jumped to $55,544 last month, reported Kelley Blue Book. That’s roughly $6,000 more than the typical gas model — though EVs tended to be in higher price segments and come with more equipment.
![2024 Chevy Blazer EV RS RWD](https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/images.gearjunkie.com/uploads/2023/12/20231205-2024-Chevrolet-Blazer-EV-LT-front-3-4-by-beach.jpg)